Time series prediction with simple recurrent neural networks

Simple recurrent neural networks are widely used in time series prediction. Most researchers and application developers often choose arbitrarily between Elman or Jordan simple recurrent neural networks for their applications. A hybrid of the two called Elman-Jordan (or Multi-recurrent) neural network is also being used. In this study, we evaluated the performance of these neural networks on three established bench mark time series prediction problems. Results from the experiments showed that Jordan neural network performed significantly better than the others. However, the results indicated satisfactory forecasting performance by the other two neural networks.Key Words: Time Series Prediction, Artificial Neural Network, Recurrent NN, Resilient Propagation

Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series forecasting

Global optimization techniques such as Particle Swarm Optimizers (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) are now widely used for training Artificial Neural Networks (NN), particularly in time series forecasting problems. Firefly algorithm (FA) is a relatively new addition to the family of population based optimization technique that has shown promising result in a number of problems. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of FA trained NN in time series forecasting. In the experiments, three well known time series were used to evaluate the performance. Results obtained were compared with results from both PSO and Resilient Propagation (RPROP) trained NNs. FA based NN performed very well in forecasting all the time series considered, outperforming the bench-marks in two out of the three problems.Keywords: Time series, Artificial Neural Network, Firefly Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Overfittin

Measles: The past, the present and the future

Measles is one of the most infectious diseases known to affect man. It spreads rapidly from an index case to many susceptible individuals resulting in cycles of epidemics in different parts of the world especially in the African continent. The contribution of measles to childhood mortality and morbidity remains high because it gives rise to complications such as pneumonia, malnutrition and blindness. Measles vaccine is known to be efficacious and effective; however appearance of epidemics in parts of Europe and the USA in recent times underscores the fact that low vaccine uptake will always leave a large number of susceptible individuals with a potential for epidemics. The history, aetiopathogenesis, clinical features (including complications), diagnostic tools, treatment and prevention are discussed in this article. The most important steps to prevent measles cases and deaths would be to institutionalize the two dose measles vaccine regime; give supplemental Vitamin A; strengthen health systems to be able to adequately deliver the vaccine and supplement, carry out surveillance and offer treatment for cases. There is no doubt that global partnerships remain relevant in order to consolidate and accelerate prevention of measles, thus, they must continue to be supported

Gamma Ray Spectrometric Analysis of Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORMS) in Gold Bearing Soil using NaI (Tl) Technique

In this work, the radioactivity in the gold bearing samples collected from the artisanal mining sites in Birnin Gwari Local Government Area, Kaduna State have been determined, experimental measurements of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K activities concentration in the gold bearing samples have been carried out using a NaI(Ti) gamma ray spectrometer. The measured activity concentration for 226Ra have been found to lie in the specific ranges from 1.0545±0.4983Bq/Kg to 3.8355± 0.3476Bq/Kg while the  mean concentration is 2.383±0.4415Bq/Kg for 232Th, the activity concentration ranges from 9.3501±1.0260Bq/Kg to 66.7047±0.5700Bq/Kg, while the mean activity concentration of 232Th is 32.3644±9.3440Bq/Kg, for 40K,the activity concentration ranges from 120.9953±6.5319Bq/Kg to 815.8631±10.504Bq/Kg, while the mean activity concentration is 383.7924±72.5436Bq/Kg. The mean absorbed dose rate in the study area is 35.7334nGy/hr; while the mean annual effective dose rate is 0.032mSv/year which is lower when compared with tolerable limits of 1mSv/year. Keywords; Natural Radionuclides,Aactivity Concentrations, Absorbed Dose

Determination of radionuclides in soil samples taken from Gura Topp (Jos) using sodium iodide thallium detector Nai(Ti)

The activity concentrations of natural radionuclides 40K, 226Ra and 232Th in soil samples taken from the tin mining area in Gura top, Jos were measured by gamma spectrometry using Sodium Iodide detector. The average specific activity concentrations of 40K, 226Ra and 232Th determined in the soil sample ranged from 11.26±3.16Bq/Kg to 543.35±0.64Bq/Kg with mean activity concentration of 161.96±7.56Bq/Kg for 40K, that of 226Ra ranged from 7.19±1.23Bq/Kg to 144.20±10.18Bq/Kg with the mean activity of 46.47±5.19Bq/Kg while 232Th ranged from 76.08±3.38Bq/Kg to 1267.91±15.37Bq/Kg, with mean activity concentration of 396.17±7.69Bq/Kg. The results indicates that the activity concentration of 40K was found to be below the world average while that of 232Th and 226Ra were detected to be above the world average value. This suggests that t the study area has excess thorium and radium activities which pose significant health hazard and is considered radio-logically unsafe for human to cultivate on the land.Keywords: Activity concentration, Gamma spectrometry, Natural radionuclides and Sodium, Iodide detecto

Perilaku Asertif Dan Kecenderungan Kenakalan Remaja Berdasarkan Pola Asuh Dan Peran Media Massa

Theoretically the adolescent psychological development is a transition period which is marked by changes in biological, psychological and social aspects. Empirically, the increasing trend of juvenile delinquency is caused by the inability of the early adolescents to be assertive so that their personality become weak and they can easily fall into negative things. This study aimed at determining the extent to which environment and mass media have the influence on assertive behaviour and juvenile delinquency trend in Junior High School in West Java Province. The respondents of this research were 458 students of Junior High Schools in West Java. Questionnaire was used to collect the data. Samples were chosen by using stratified random sampling technique. Data analysis employed Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with two-stages testing: measurement model and structural model, using Analysis of Moment Structure (AMOS). The results of this study revealed that all hypothetical statements have significant effects. The findings showed that the increasing level of students' assertive behaviour can decrease the tendency of juvenile delinquency in them. Keywords: assertive behaviour, parenting, mass media, juvenile delinquency tren

The Role of Renewable Energy in Mitigating Deforestation and Climate Change in Nigeria

This paper provides an overview of the role of renewable energy in mitigating deforestation and climate change in Nigeria. There are strong concerns over greenhouse gas (GHGs) buildup in the atmosphere which is leading to global climate change. Most of the energy supply and use for cooking and heating in the country is derived from fuel wood. This paper highlights the need to reduce burning wood substances as fuel since they generate carbon dioxide which is the main culprit behind the current climate change by exploiting other renewable energy sources like biofuels, solar and wind technologies. This minimizes overreliance on forests for fuel wood while still slowing down deforestation and climate change. In attaining this, the renewable energy contribution to the country’s energy generation and consumption must be improved. This paper suggests that the government in partnership with other stakeholders should design and implement effective renewable energy policies and programmes by strengthening its relevant institutions. It needs to also come up with more simpler and affordable renewable energy technologies as a pre-requisite to achieving environmental protection and sustainability. Keywords: renewable energy, fuel wood, carbon dioxide, greenhouse gas, climate change, deforestatio

Kinetic and Thermodynamic Studies of Chromium Ion Adsorption Using Chitosan from Mussel Shell

A study was carried out to investigate the removal of chromium (VI) ion from chromate solution using deacetylated chitin extracted from mussel shell. Mussel shells were obtained from Gubi dam in Bauchi, Nigeria and chemical method was used to extract chitin and then chitosan from these shells. A batch adsorption study was used to generate data for kinetic modelling. Out of the four kinetic models tested, the adsorption process was found to follow the pseudo-second order kinetic model with an R2-value of 0.9997; The process was physical with a free sorption energy of 0.224 kJ/mol. Also, the enthalpy of adsorption was -67.295 kJ/mol K and the Gibbs free energies were all negative, thus the process is spontaeneous and exothermic. Keywords: Kinetic, Chitosan, Mussel, Chromium, Adsorption, Thermodynami